Gradually, then suddenly

Something remarkable happened this week. In Texas, Democrats won not just one major contest, but every statewide office. For many observers, this seemed unthinkable, as Texas has been reliably Republican for decades, and people had come to see its political identity as permanent.

But as Nathan Johnson, the Democratic attorney-general-elect of Texas said:

“When something has been a certain way for a long time, everyone assumes that it’s permanently that way. Someone said to me recently, ‘Texas has been red for 30 years. Those are daunting odds.’ Those aren’t odds at all. That’s just a description of the state of things. It’s not permanent.”

It’s a message worth remembering whenever we feel discouraged about the future of our cities.

How often do we hear these arguments in Greece: “Nothing ever changes.” “People will never give up their cars.” “We’ll never have safe cycling infrastructure here.”

This is also just a description of the state of things. It’s not permanent.

I’m reminded of this exchange from Ernest Hemingway’s novel, The Sun Also Rises:

“How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked. “Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually and then suddenly.”

This deceptively simple idea captures how complex systems often evolve over time. Political and social change often follows exactly this pattern. For years, very little seems to happen, and any victory feels small and insignificant. Then, seemingly overnight, a tipping point is reached and change accelerates. Think of the fall of the Berlin Wall; the rapid transformation of attitudes towards smoking in public spaces; the explosion of cycling in cities such as Paris. These changes appeared sudden, but in reality, they were the result of years, sometimes decades, of gradual shifts in public opinion, activism, and policy experimentation. The “suddenly” only becomes possible because of the long period of “gradually” that comes before it.

Some people would argue that there is no gradual buildup when it comes to car dominance is Greece; we are a tiny minority against car drivers and politicians. Every proposal for safer cycling, traffic calming or reduced parking is met with accusations of a “war on cars.” Listening to that debate, one could easily conclude that almost everyone supports the status quo.

But is that true? Another useful concept here is “pluralistic ignorance“, which is when many people privately support an idea but mistakenly believe that most others do not. As a result, supporters remain silent while opponents appear more numerous and influential than they really are. For example, earlier this year, before the Paris mayoral election, many commentators predicted a major backlash against the transformation of Paris under Mayor Anne Hidalgo. Instead, the expected “bikelash” failed to materialise. Large numbers of residents had come to appreciate cleaner air, calmer streets, safer routes, and more public space. The vocal opposition turned out not to represent the majority.

Could something similar be happening in Greece? How many people would like safer and healthier streets for their children? Less traffic noise outside their homes? How many are tired of congestion and public spaces dominated by parked cars? Perhaps more than we think.

So here’s my call to action: help create the conditions for that tipping point to arrive by talking to friends, family and colleagues about the impact of car dependence on our health, our environment and the quality of life in our neighbourhoods.

When your municipality launches a consultation on transport or public space, take part. Publicly support safer cycling infrastructure, better public transport, less space for cars, and more space for people. Write comments, and attend meetings. Most importantly, don’t allow the loudest voices to convince you that you are alone. Every person who speaks up makes it easier for someone else to do the same. And every conversation chips away at the belief that car dominance is inevitable, and moves us closer to the tipping point.

Finally, join a community such as Cities for Cycling (we have good things brewing!), because there’s nothing better than community to help you feel hopeful about the future. Community allows us to connect with others who share the same hopes, exchange ideas, support one another, and turn individual frustration into collective action.

If Texas can turn blue, we can turn our cities green.